I agree with most of what you said. I think the rotation is the problem here. Romero is a stud, Morrow is a beast, and Drabek is coming along nicely and due to break out this year, but Alvarez is too young to be consistent. They APPEAR to have 5 serviceable starters this year, but don't be surprised if Villaneuva finds himself in the rotation by the halfway point in the season, and Alvarez and that other dude they have in the rotation will prove that they're not ready and will be what costs them the wild card spot in the end.
Young fielders can work; young legs and hungry bodies are always a good thing. For the mental aspect of pitching, however, young arms just don't have the mental tools yet or the physical preparation to make it in the bigs. There are exceptions of course, but there's no Tim Lincecum calibre arm on this team.
Jay finish 3rd or 4th and are level with the Bo Sox for most of this season. Some great hitting can help carry the team, but mediocre pitching in the rotation will be he key to their lack of post-season play unless they acquire an arm that can chew up innings and stabilize the rotation.