Gatherix
Death by Darkly
backpack.tf has just been screwing the whole game economy over. Either something is going to happen to backpack.tf, or the whole way the economy works will change.
WTF Keys!?!?!?
- Thread starter Blitzkrieg
- Start date
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
Sometimes I wonder if it was because people kept sticking to it like it made prices set in stone. (TF2 OP and Reddit are to blame for that.) Also, this seems like a great reason.
just a question
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
You're one of the originals. These new fags are ruining everyone and everything...
zackychuu
TD Admin / Wanker
Those were the days
THOSE WERE THE DAYS!!!
I remember when people would bitch at you for trying to sell keys at 2.66...
Now aparantly 3.33 is a low price and 3.66 is perfectly normal O.o
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
Wonder how higher we'll go...it's scary to think about. o.O
cj4981
DARKLY Regular
People are already trying to sell for 4+ ref on outpost >.<
On the other hand guy selling to non-resellers for 2.77. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6777401
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
Whoa...one guy alone in the world of insane faggots. Really, 4 refined? Did these traders go postal or something?People are already trying to sell for 4+ ref on outpost >.<
On the other hand guy selling to non-resellers for 2.77. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6777401
I'm so glad I no longer trade for shit, just the occasional item if I need it, last real trade I did was for two strange weapons, payed a little over a Refined Metal for a Strange Spy-Cicle, Strange Home-wrecker, Strange Baby Face's Blaster and Strange Bottle. Spreadsheet says around 1, 2.11, .66 Refined blah blah...but they're using the backpack.tf prices. I don't mind paying more for those that I don't have but I just seriously made a huge profit...judging from the metal in my Backpack. Haven't had that much in a long time, now it sits there, collecting dust.
DEATH TO OP AND BP! :flerp:
If you checked that question thread recently, someone posted a really good idea as to why keys are raising...because Metal is decreasing.
Keys
Think he might be onto something.
zackychuu
TD Admin / Wanker
Bookmarked him, I may buy themOn the other hand guy selling to non-resellers for 2.77. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6777401
cj4981
DARKLY Regular
Yea, I just trade for things i need as well now. Tf2 trading is really screwed over :/
Interesting idea, too many idling accounts. Guy making $500 per week from idling? LOL. I think valve should just limit one account per person but have something like unlimited bp space. Multiple accounts allows scammers to be able to easily switch to a new account. Obviously, theres still ways around this, but it could deter them from trying to scam so much.
I saw another post somewhere about why rising in price. They said with the new steam market, a lot of people are just buying keys from there which means new keys are not being put into circulation. As more people unbox, the amount of keys are constantly decreasing which increases its value. Not sure if that makes sense but
zackychuu
TD Admin / Wanker
Both theories have their own merits.
Metal decreasing because more and more metal is coming in to the game..
Keys rising because less keys are being brought into the game..
Personally I think both of those theories are the exact reason why the price has sky-rocketed so fast recently.
Although, it has become somewhat stable again now.
Metal decreasing because more and more metal is coming in to the game..
Keys rising because less keys are being brought into the game..
Personally I think both of those theories are the exact reason why the price has sky-rocketed so fast recently.
Although, it has become somewhat stable again now.
cj4981
DARKLY Regular
Yea its been stuck at the 3.33-3.66 for awhile. They were at 2.33 for a really long time. Then people started trying to profit off selling and rebuying keys. Price goes up D:
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
Yea, I just trade for things i need as well now. Tf2 trading is really screwed over :/
Interesting idea, too many idling accounts. Guy making $500 per week from idling? LOL. I think valve should just limit one account per person but have something like unlimited bp space. Multiple accounts allows scammers to be able to easily switch to a new account. Obviously, theres still ways around this, but it could deter them from trying to scam so much.
I saw another post somewhere about why rising in price. They said with the new steam market, a lot of people are just buying keys from there which means new keys are not being put into circulation. As more people unbox, the amount of keys are constantly decreasing which increases its value. Not sure if that makes sense but
You both bring up good, very good points.
cj4981 LOL, I heard about that too, it's just insane thinking about it. There needs to be a limit, some of the traders I spoke to have over 30 accounts. I was under the impression TF2 added the Backpack Expander to start negating this...but now with Steam Trade, you'd need backpack expanders for DOTA 2, SMNC, Spiral Knights and Portal 2. These, which will never happen because only one game has been around long enough to demand this much trading, and the others are nowhere near where TF2 is...
There defiantly needs to be a limit. While the sense doesn't quite make it through, I know what you're aiming at, and I totally agree...good theories, all of them but it's hard to sit on just one because so many different factors come up, and so many variables in these theories. Its like a long ass algebraic equation.
zackychuu Stable? You gone mental? OP's going at 4 Refined and some of the trading sites will soon follow, holy shit.
cj4981
DARKLY Regular
Real reason they made bp expander for all the games = get more money from selling them. :3
Wrath
DARKLY Middleman
cj4981
DARKLY Regular
Lol, when you meet those people that will fight you to give them the exact amount on the sheet.
jakksilves
LiR
What amazes me is that no one is buying keys from the Mann Co store anymore.
Gatherix
Death by Darkly
Thanks to.....
Steam Market! Right now the only thing keeping the market from completely flopping is the cash trading, which has done a nice job on surviving backpack.tf and the Steam Market. Still, now isn't a bad time to cash out.
Fiend
Senior TF2 Admin
If they keep trying to drive the value of keys up (and higher tier currency), the people who want to sell these amazing unusuals, bill and buds will have a tiny market to sell to. Craft hats, 2nd and third tier hats aren't changing in price and it's gonna take an assload more of them to be able to afford keys and up. The UPPER market will be flooded with unusuals because there will be a lot more sellers than buyers. People won't be able to reach that that tier easily, if at all. backpack.tf and the spreadsheet are definitely to blame. The assholes hoarding keys and unusuals are rigging the prices. I wish TF2 could get a third party pricing sheet. That or *gasp* Valve come out with an official one.
It's definitely and interesting concept. If it continues though, i think it's going to end poorly.
It's definitely and interesting concept. If it continues though, i think it's going to end poorly.
Gatherix
Death by Darkly
Keep in mind that the price of a key is set - $2.50 per. So if people keep upping the cost of a key, all they're doing is depreciating the value of metal. There's an infinite amount of metal because of weapon drops, and the thing is it doesn't really GO anywhere. Sure, it goes away when you use it to craft hats, slot tokens, or unique weapons, but people don't do any of those too often, yet smelting drops is a very common thing. The price of a key on the cash market has over the years very slowly dropped, but it's always wavering up and down. Similarly, buds have been slowly rising, but also always waver up and down. But the cost of keys in metal has almost never dropped in any significant way. This is why the cash market hasn't changed much from the spiking of key prices in metal. This massive, prolonged inflation means metal is not a viable form of currency - but because of its ease of access and constant injection into the market, it's used as a currency. This whole dilemma can be seen as the Inflation Problem.
What happens as metal decreases in value? Items increase in cost. Except not really - if you take the cost of things in keys, and then use the cash-trading price, these items are not actually changing in value, they're simply becoming more expensive to buy with metal. But here's the problem: besides the fact that this is only slowly getting worse, new traders aren't getting any more amount of metal than they were before. This is because all new traders get their funds the same way - crafting weapon drops into metal. That's because new traders can't afford to use keys as their currency. But if the value of metal is depreciating, new traders start having a harder time growing because everything is more expensive, including (most importantly) keys. Key vendors noticed this, and realized that they can raise their prices because of it. But with the implementation of backpack.tf, people keep upvoting the cost of a key because people are charging more. Then to keep their prices competitive, vendors are forced to raise them even higher, and the cycle repeats. So backpack.tf hasn't been the cause of all of these market warping, it's just been a catalyst, an accelerator. So now many new traders realize that they have to buy keys to get into higher-end trading, and they buy them not from the Mann Co. Store, but from the Steam Market.
While cash trading has always been a part of the TF2 market, this is due to the recently added Steam Market, where players can now buy and sell many items for actual funds in their steam wallet, including keys. This has allowed a safer and easier way for players to buy and sell their keys for cash - previously non-cash traders who didn't have the resources to start cash trading, didn't want to due to the risk, or simply didn't know it even existed are now trading items for cash constantly. The big reason the cash trading market (outside of the Steam Market) has been able to survive this is because you can withdraw funds that you get from selling items - you can't withdraw from your Steam Wallet.
As Jakk pointed out,
...people don't buy keys from the Mann Co. Store as much anymore, mostly due to the Steam Market. But every time someone makes a sale on the Steam Market, Valve gets a small cut. So this implementation makes sense, right? They sacrifice sales in the Mann Co. Store in exchange for a flood of players trading cash, bringing in lots of new revenue for Valve. But the addition of the Steam Market is also in some respects an indirect attempt to solve the inflation problem. It in many ways stabilizes the market, as it provides a flat cost (just like keys previously) of many commonly-traded items. Steam recently added a bunch of new items that can be sold in the Steam Market, but that did not include metal. The reason is because it forces the value of metal to be shaped around the value of items, which is what it originally was supposed to do and helps solve the Inflation Problem. This is a big change for Valve - ever since the cash market, Valve has made most of their funds on the purchasing of keys to unbox unusuals, which were then trading for cash. It was a great form of economic stimulation. But by adding the Steam Market they've started relying not only on that main market driver to gain revenue. And while there are now many more unusuals than there were before, there are also many more items than before. And with less keys coming into the market since more are being trading between players rather than purchased from Valve, this could have a huge impact on how keys are used. A lack of or change in keys could be both fantastic and terrible for cash trading, which I would argue has kept a lot of this in balance.
That was a lot (a lot) longer than I intended. Point is, due to the Steam Market, backpack.tf, and the abundance of metal, the market is changing. How it's going to change isn't clear, and won't be. You can trust that it won't just flop, because remember that all of these are virtual items under the control of Valve, who can do whatever they want to it, and in order for the unusual market to flop keys need to flop first. But it is changing, and the rising cost of the key isn't as much a cause of that as it is an effect.