http://stats.tf/item/1011/Tux
http://stats.tf/item/143/Earbuds
With there currently only being 16,164 Tuxes out there compared to 58,052 Earbuds, I would seriously doubt that these will be worth so little. People do not want to go though the long task of the whole ubuntu downloading task so they just do not bother. This promo has been going on for a week I think and only 16,164 Tuxes are in TF2. Why would people wait until the last minute? Lets say this number multiplies by 2.5 (2.4 for the amount of time left to get the promo and .1 for the people like "Ah, promo going out!") and that gives us 40,410. Statistically speaking, the Tux will be more valuable than Earbuds. But they will not start out that way and they will not be more valuable than Earbuds because of the customer mindset. They will start out at the level of a Bill's Hat and rise until about 20 keys where they will stay constant.