DoubleJumper
TF2 Staff
last time i bought a pair of keys i got em for 4.33... not they are at 6 ref... i still got the keys XD
Stupidity in TF2
- Thread starter 14bux
- Start date
shoottomaim
BANNED
when i quit they were at 2.77.
now........... 6 ref holy shit. i think gabe sat on the backpack.tf servers again
now........... 6 ref holy shit. i think gabe sat on the backpack.tf servers again
DoubleJumper
TF2 Staff
Antimoon
DARKLY Regular
A large part of the jump in key prices is due to bias on the part of the backpack.tf staff. Keys are really the only trade currency that can be bought with actual money (black market buds aside), so of course it benefits people who have incomes and are willing to spend money on the game to have them go up in value. The only way to have a price guide that would be resistant to manipulation would be a combination of some sort of stock ticker that monitors what things are being bought and sold for, without human intervention (preferably on multiple servers, tf2outpost, bazaar, tf2tp, etc), coupled with an administration that is truly neutral towards prices (i.e. people who don't actually play the game, just ). Even then, though, it would be possible to manipulate prices by setting up sock accounts and trading with yourself at whatever price.
Yea - that would be the ticket I think - to have a resource for pricing based on average trade values, instead of either community opinion or administrator opinion based pricing. Of course this still only suggests a value to begin negotiations, but it would provide a more stable and rational basis for trade values..
Antimoon
DARKLY Regular
Also, I think that a large issue comes from things like the spreadsheet and backpack kind of marketing themselves as a price guide instead of a price guideline. New traders will usually come in with the mentality of going to a store, where things have absolute prices, and you can either pay those prices or leave. They go to a site that shows prices for things in the game, and assume that those prices are the non-negotiable "value" of their items. The whole point of backpack was supposed to be a monitor of what things are selling for, which logically pairs with the rest of the statistical data that they aggregate. Instead, it has turned into the source of prices for the vast majority of the market, regardless of whether or not those prices make sense (e.g., BMOCs and buds have both had static supplies for a while now, and both are largely used as currrency. Why is the value of BMOCs shooting up while buds are dropping, when the demand should be relatively unchanged, if not greater for both?).
Mizz
DARKLY Fiend
This^^^^^^^^^
Unless I can sell an item instantly for the spreadsheet price I usually sell it for cheaper
Most of the time I check spreadsheet price then sell the item for like a ref or 2 less cause I don't really give a crap about trading
Gatherix
Death by Darkly
Cash trading, or the black market, is essential to the TF2 unusual economy, which is Valve's largest source of income from the trading scheme. It has a massive effect on currency pricing. It cannot be omitted when evaluating currency prices.
Sleight variations of this already happen, and occur in most economies. Price suggestions on backpack.tf, and the way they're handled, are similar.
Bias in a pricing guide that's not automated is in some ways a positive element; entirely community-run price guides present their own share of problems, arguably more so than one administrated by a single or set of individuals.
Trade.TF already (somewhat) accomplishes this. The primary issue with an automated price guide is the extraction of data; currently, this can only (to my knowledge) be extracted from online trade sites, mainly TF2 Outpost. But I'm sure you'd agree that the pricing habits and player behaviors expressed on TF2 Outpost differ than, say, in trading servers. Transparency in this pricing by an automated guide causes prices to fluctuate more, which can place just as much of a strain on traders as the issues presented by backpack.tf
Earbuds are already established as a currency, giving them stability and easy resale ability both of which the BMOC lacks. But primarily, for most players they look considerably better than BMOC's and use a Misc. slot. Since cosmetic attraction is the largest source of pricing for most non-weapon items, they''re valued more.
14bux
Senior TF2 Admin
Never even knew there was a site called trade.tf. Looks respectable enough, though. More than backpack.tf and Spreadsheet, definitely.
Antimoon
DARKLY Regular
I absolutely agree that black market pricing should be taken into account in these situations, but a difficulty arises when translating that cash value into TF2 currency. Since Keys seem to be the main way of doing this (at least as far as I can tell), I think that my point is still valid, especially since buds have seemed to hold their value in relation to refined. Rising key prices have led to a drop in the price of buds (in keys) instead of a rise in the cash price of buds and a stable bud:key ratio.
"Gatherix" said:
Once again, I agree, it's definitely the kind of thing that really comes with economies. What people should be looking for, however, is an economic system that is resistant to intentional manipulation. I mean, this is by no means an easy feat, we still haven't accomplished it in the real world (see: oil).
Gatherix said:
I would disagree that bias in a pricing guide is a good thing, at least when there's one pricing guide that holds enough market share to essentially make it a monopoly. When the administrative staff who select price votes vote in ways to benefit themselves, it naturally harms most other players, especially when that bias is towards players who spend real world money on the game. tl;dr: who watches the watchmen?
Gatherix said:
I'd think, with the introduction of trade histories, that it would be fairly easy to dig this type of info out of the steam API, rather than relying on online sites or trade servers, really. That way, we could see what things are actually selling for (at a much larger scale than we can now) rather than relying on offers and buyouts. Maybe I've got some coding to do this weekend...
Gatherix said:
Well, the problem is that BMOCs are still rising, and buds still seem to be falling in price. Right now, there are plenty of people on outpost and on trade servers selling them 1:1, and I've seen several people accept those terms. I think that in a month's time, we'll see the BMOC at least a few keys above buds, a fact that horrifies me (I mean, this isn't runescape).
Nice gif, btw.
shoottomaim
BANNED
"Price suggestions" is a fancy way of saying follow these or die D:<. c: welcome to tf2.
HappySticks™
TD Admin
I was think about buying some keys on the community market after losing a bunch yesterday spycrabbing. Should I wait to buy them?
DoubleJumper
TF2 Staff
LOL but you did great yesterday... you were so consistent... every knew what would happen...
HappySticks™
TD Admin
Your exactly right! Even before we started crabbing I predicted I would lose......why did I keep doing it then?
DoubleJumper
TF2 Staff
Your exactly right! Even before we started crabbing I predicted I would lose......why did I keep doing it then?
you told me yourself " losing is the fun part " you must have had a ton of fun
Antimoon
DARKLY Regular
FunkyGlassCannon
I'm New Here
After leaving TF2 for a year, showing back up and my 2 ref keys turned to 6 ref, blew my mind... darn economy. lol
HappySticks™
TD Admin
Lol, I am always so torn between keeping all my keys, or selling them for metal. Some are expecting the price in keys to take a shit so they are saving up their metal. (I think Cmp is doing this)
Gatherix
Death by Darkly
Dat necropost
DarkPaladinPrime
TF2 Staff
Funny how keys are 7 refined now. Man makes me wish I could have started playing this game back when it came out back in 2007. 6 years late to the party still love the game.